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CP4SBI: Local Conformal Calibration of Credible Sets in Simulation-Based Inference
L. M. C. Cabezas, V. S. Santos, T. R. Ramos, P. L. C. Rodrigues, Rafael Izbicki
April, 2026 Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A
Preprint
Trustworthy Scientific Inference with Generative Models
Generative models are increasingly used for scientific inverse problems, but their posterior or predictive uncertainty can still be …
James Carzon, Luca Masserano, Joshua D. Ingram, Alex Shen, Antonio Carlos Herling Ribeiro Junior, Tommaso Dorigo, Michele Doro, Joshua S. Speagle, Rafael Izbicki, Ann B. Lee
February, 2026 Machine Learning: Science and Technology
Preprint
Improving decision-making in construction: Nonparametric modeling of weather-induced impacts
M. B. Comito, Rafael Izbicki, P. do C. Hubert Junior, F. Moura
January, 2026 Communications in Statistics: Case Studies, Data Analysis and Applications
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Epistemic Uncertainty in Conformal Scores: A Unified Approach
WE introduce EPICSCORE, a model-agnostic method that enhances conformal prediction by integrating epistemic uncertainty. Compatible with any Bayesian model and maintaining distribution-free guarantees, EPICSCORE adapts prediction intervals based on data availability, achieving both finite-sample marginal and asymptotic conditional coverage.
L. M. C. Cabezas, V. S. Santos, T. R. Ramos, Rafael Izbicki
May, 2025 Proceedings of Machine Learning Research (UAI Track; Oral Presentation)
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Epistemic Uncertainty in Conformal Scores: A Unified Approach
REACT to NHST: Sensible conclusions for meaningful hypotheses
Rafael Izbicki, L. M. C. Cabezas, F. A. B. Colugnatti, R. F. L. Lassance, A. A. L. de Souza, R. B. Stern
March, 2025 The Quantitative Methods for Psychology
Preprint
Towards instance-wise calibration: Local amortized diagnostics and reshaping of conditional densities (LADaR)
B. Dey, D. Zhao, B. Andrews, J. Newman, Rafael Izbicki, A. Lee
March, 2025 Machine Learning: Science and Technology
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PersonalizedUS: Interpretable Breast Cancer Risk Assessment with Local Coverage Uncertainty Quantification
A. Fröhlich, T. Ramos, G. Cabello, I. Buzatto, Rafael Izbicki, D. Tiezzi
February, 2025 In AAAI
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Regression Trees for Fast and Adaptive Prediction Intervals
L. M. C. Cabezas, M. P. Otto, Rafael Izbicki, R. B. Stern
February, 2025 Information Sciences
Preprint PDF
Toward the End-to-End Optimization of the SWGO Array Layout
T. Dorigo, M. Aehle, C. Arcaro, M. Awais, F. Bergamaschi, J. Doniti, M. Doro, N. R. Gauger, Rafael Izbicki, J. Kieseler A. B. Lee, L. Masserano, F. Nardi, R. Rajesh, L. R. Vergara, A. Shen
January, 2025 Nuclear Physics B
Adding Imprecision to Hypotheses: A Bayesian Framework for Testing Practical Significance in Nonparametric Settings
R. F. L. Lassance, Rafael Izbicki, R. B. Stern
January, 2025 International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
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